This paper explores the possible impact of recent federal policy changes on the future size of the adoption population - that is, children adopted from foster care. Results are presented from a simulation model that uses data from Chapin Hall's Multistate Foster Care Data Archive to project the size of the adoption population and the number of children in foster care for the next 20 years. In particular, the sensitivity of the projected size of the adoption population to changes in adoption rates and the number of children entering foster care in the future is examined. The analysis shows that in the next few years, most likely between 2004 and 2006, the number of children receiving adoption assistance will exceed the number of children in foster care. Further, the adoption population will continue to be larger than the foster care population well into the future, unless there are unusually dramatic changes in the number of foster care admissions.