Chapin Hall

Overall TANF Caseload Declined between 2010 and 2022

Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) is a federal program that provides funding for states to implement and administer cash assistance and other supports to families who meet eligibility and work requirements. This brief describes results from a series of longitudinal analyses using federal TANF administrative data from 28 states. It examines patterns and trends in TANF participation, focusing on caseload dynamics, household characteristics, and state-level differences. These analyses are preliminary and were conducted to demonstrate how federal TANF data can be used for longitudinal research that offers important insights into TANF participation over time. 

What We Did

In this brief, we analyzed longitudinal, federal data from the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program, examining participation trends and patterns from 2009 to 2022 across 28 states. Utilizing descriptive statistics, sequence analysis, and event-history analyses, we explored how patterns of TANF participation change over time and the relationship of case characteristics to exit rates and the likelihood of returning to TANF. Our findings provide important insights into the dynamics of federal TANF participation. 

What We Found

• Caseload decline: The TANF caseload has decreased by 63% from 2010 to 2022, with a brief increase during the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline is consistent across all states and major racial groups. 

• Child-only cases: There has been an increase in the proportion of child-only TANF cases. These cases, which have no adult recipients, tend to remain on TANF longer than cases with adult recipients. Child-only cases are also more likely to consistently receive TANF compared to cases with adult recipients. 

• Duration of participation: Adult recipient cases tend to exit TANF more quickly than child-only cases. Adult recipient cases are also more likely to return to TANF after exiting than child-only cases. 

• State variations: Differences in TANF policies across states significantly impact caseload dynamics. For example, states with the lowest TANF-to-poverty ratios (TPR)—meaning they serve the fewest families in poverty relative to other states—have the highest proportion of child-only cases. 

• Return rates: Households in states with lower TANF-to-poverty ratios are slower to return to TANF after exiting compared to those in states with higher TANF-to-poverty ratios. Families with Black heads of households are also more likely to return to TANF than families with White or Hispanic heads of households. 

What It Means

This study sheds light on important trends in TANF participation, emphasizing the importance of longitudinal data and the need for ongoing research to better support families in need.  

Areas for future improvement in research and in data collection include:  

1. Continue encouraging states to submit the universe of their Federal TANF data to increase the ability to conduct longitudinal research. 
2. Work to improve our ability to measure and understand the entire trajectory of a household that received TANF, including receipt of other cash welfare funds and reasons for cases closing.
3. Gain a deeper understanding of how child-only cases are being leveraged across states and their impact on TANF participation.
4. Generate future research to understand intergenerational patterns of TANF receipt and the relationship between caseload dynamics and employment patterns.

 
Read the brief